probability

Discussion about starting hands.

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Hayees84
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Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 10:41 pm

Postby Hayees84 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 11:23 am

very usefuk site , in poker is all about probabilities , the probability for me to win is 99%
Formserain
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Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:24 pm

Postby Formserain » Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:36 pm

The following is some good information on outs and probabilities, taken from the following two web sites (modified slightly by Yours Truly for clarification):
www.toptexasholdem.com
www.pokertips.org



Number of outs for specific draws:

Flush draw with two overcards or a straight-flush draw_____15 outs
Flush draw with one overcard_________________________12 outs
Flush draw_________________________________________9 outs
Open-ended straight draw____________________________8 outs
Two overcards_____________________________________6 outs
Gut-shot straight draw_______________________________4 outs



As a rule of thumb:
EVERY OUT GIVES YOU ABOUT A 4% CHANCE OF HITTING ON THE TURN OR RIVER AND 2% CHANCE OF HITTING ON RIVER ONLY.



Probabilities of drawing an “out” from a deck of 47 unseen cards:

# of Outs____% on river only___% on turn or river
1______________2.2_____________4.3
2______________4.3_____________8.4
3______________6.5____________12.5
4______________8.7____________16.5
5_____________10.9____________20.4
6_____________13.0____________24.1
7_____________15.2____________27.8
8_____________17.4____________31.5
9_____________19.6____________35.0
10____________21.7____________28.4
11____________23.9____________41.7
12____________26.1____________45.0
13____________28.3____________48.1
14____________30.4____________51.2
15____________32.6____________54.1




Here are some basic probabilities:

Flush Probabilities
Probability of being dealt suited cards___________________________ 23.5%
Probability of flopping a flush when holding two suited cards________ 0.8%
Probability of flopping a flush draw when holding two suited cards____10.9%
Probability of hitting a flush draw on turn or river__________________35%

Straight Probabilities
Probability of hitting an open-ended straight draw _________________31.5%
Probability of hitting a gutshot draw on turn or river________________16.5%

Pocket Pair Probabilities
Probability of being dealt a pocket pair__________________________5.9%
Probability of hitting a three of a kind or quads at the flop when you hold a pocket pair___11.8%
Probability of being dealt AA_________________________________0.45%

Unpaired Hole Cards Probabilities
Probability of making a pair with one of your hole cards____________32.4%
Probability of hitting two pair on the flop with each of your hole cards__2%

Ace Probabilities
Probability that at least one of your hole cards is an ace______________14.9%


Probability of no one holding an ace, assuming you do not have an ace.
Note: this can be used for any card (not just A)

# Players______Probability
2____________84.5%
3____________70.9%
4____________59%
5____________48.6%
6____________39.7%
7____________32.1%
8____________25.6%
9____________20.1%
10___________15.6%


Probability someone else does not have an ace, assuming you do have an ace, by total number of players:
# Players_____Probability
2____________88.2%
3____________77.5%
4____________67.6%
5____________58.6%
6____________50.4%
7____________43%
8____________36.4%
9____________30.5%
10___________25.3%
Formserain
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Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:24 pm

Postby Formserain » Thu Sep 29, 2005 1:37 pm

Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 6:16 pm    Post subject:    

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For those interested, here's the info for a Royal Flush:

To draw a Royal Flush with 5 consecutive cards from a 52 card deck:

p = 4 x 5/52 x 4/51 x 3/50 x 2/49 x 1/48 = 0.00000153908
which is 1 in 649,740. (This is the number that is quoted everywhere)


However, in Texas Holdem, your odds get better since you get 7 cards.

p = 4 x 5/52 x 4/51 x 3/50 x 2/49 x (1/48 + 1/47 + 1/46) = 0.00000461857
which is 1 in 216,517.

Those of you whom have hit it can consider yourselves lucky.
I'm still waiting.
Froperept
newbie
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2005 12:57 am

Postby Froperept » Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:33 pm

I heard some good advice once. If you are not sure get out. Probabilites sound like alot of work. You would be much better off perfecting your ESP powers so that you can "see" the outcome of any given hand.
Whange
4 star member
Posts: 128
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 5:13 pm

Postby Whange » Sun Jan 01, 2006 6:57 pm

Was just looking for this kind of information.  How do others use this information when they play?  The % are nice, but I am guessing the size of the pot your position also need to play a role in what you choose to do.
Worters
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Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:03 pm

probability

Postby Worters » Sun Jan 01, 2006 7:12 pm

thanks ive been wondering on some hands and what the probality of me winning is ty very muchf

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