my bad beat

Which is the worst bad beat you've had?

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Laire1982
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Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2005 6:28 pm

my bad beat

Postby Laire1982 » Sun Feb 12, 2006 2:11 pm

OK all here is my first bad beat analysis!

I had AA
guy next to me held KK
guy to left of me had 55

Now the guy with kings made initial raise of coarse I re raised him after his initial raise. The player with kings re raised me and I went Allin and said your KK is no good before even seeing his cards! I was playing at AP so new what he had lol. The guy with the 55 of coarse was just calling the whole way.

Now what would you expect to happen in this case?
The obvious and expected answer would be that the AA held up and won. However this is not what happened in this case.

The percents to win pre flop was

AA = 65.90%
KK = 17.49%
55 = 16.09

Now that is hand with all three hands in play what hand would have a better chance to win heads up against AA? For beginners most would probably say KK but that is not correct. In reality the 55 holds a better chance and greater percent when heads up against AA.

Now some of you may be scratching your head and wondering how and why. The how and why is actually pretty simple once you think about it for a few.

KK is one of the worst hands when facing AA for a very simple reason and that is that KK don't have many outs.

KK if it's opposite suite of AA has
Runner flush draw
1 str8t draw (9,10,J,Q, (K)
or to make the set

Now 55 has
1)make the set
2)catch runner flush if opposite suites
3)straights (this is where it has more outs with more chances to hit str8ts) KK only has one str8t option while 55 has several.

That is why the 55 has a better chance to win then KK does against AA. Now don't go out and think wow if I hold 55 I can dominate AA lol that would not be smart after all AA vs 55 is still 81% to 19% so still not good odds.

I hope this helps everyone a little and good luck at the tables

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